No longer the dollar, this round of emerging market crisis begins with ＂lack of food＂!

If you pay attention to the state of the market, you can find that the market is in a state of fascination and optimism. I don’t know if the impact of various black swan events in 2022 was too great, which led the market to place different expectations on 2023.

-Even though the current market situation is still very bad, when looking forward to the environment in 2023, various institutions always bring such arguments as "strong economic resilience", "stable job market", "controllable inflation as a whole" and "weakened impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine".It’s just that it may be due to the consideration of caution. After advocating 2023, institutions will be neither salty nor light. Plus, there will be many risk warnings such as risks in 2023.

For example, on January 31st,countryThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the Global Economic Outlook Report. In the report, the IMF raised the GDP growth rate to 2.9% in 2023, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast in October, and the economic growth rate was also raised to 3.1% in 2024, as if the future situation were excellent.

Of course, as far as the capital market is concerned, as long as the macro environment warms marginally, the market will have a poor expectation, and then there will be room for arbitrage. For the sake of their own interests, institutions will naturally unconsciously enlarge the description of the improvement of the market state, and then people will have an illusion-"The macro environment will be fully improved in 2023, and the market will usher in a sharp rebound."

For the macro market in 2023, there is still a big thunder that has not been fully traded by the market.That is, in 2023, a serious black swan event may break out in emerging markets, which will disturb the whole macro environment.

There are not a few emerging economies with thunderstorms in 2022. From Sri Lanka, Ghana to Egypt, there are currently three.countryHome appeared.break a contractThe situation.

Among them, Ghana used to be a world-renowned "gold coast", accounting for more than 30% of Africa’s GDP; Egypt is the second largest economy in Africa, with a total population of over 100 million. However, these two emerging economies from Africa all fell in 2022, reflecting that the risks of emerging economies around the world have risen to a new height. (About these two.countryThe specific analysis of bankruptcy, can refer to.Egypt’s exchange rate collapsed, but the crude oil market took the lead in "opening seats".、《When the global financial crisis broke out, how did Ghana?break a contractYes?"Two articles).

How do emerging economiesbreak a contractYes? beautifulcountryHow to harvest the world?

-the dollar is a good sickle, but the dollar debt is a good "chainsaw".

If we look back at history, almost every thunderstorm in emerging markets is accompanied by a sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

This is mainly because in order to develop and adapt to the tide of globalization, most emerging economies borrow a lot of US dollar bonds to develop their capital.countryEconomy.

When the Fed raises interest rates sharply, these emerging economies may not only fail to pay their dollar debts, but even fail to pay interest, which will eventually lead to their bankruptcy.break a contract.

ErmeicountryYou can go bankrupt in emerging economies.break a contractAfter that, through the IMF and other institutions,countryEconomists carry out "optimization reform" and take this opportunity to bargain-hunt their high-quality assets at low prices and gain a lot of income.

Why do emerging economies experience frequent thunderstorms in 2022?break a contractWhat about the phenomenon?