Groups of American tourists flew to Paris to sweep the goods, and the offline consumption in Europe and America returned to before the epidemic？

　　Despite the growing concern about the economic recession in Europe and America, the pace of retailers opening offline stores has not slowed down.

　　Recently, URW and Hammerson, the largest shopping mall operators in Europe, reported that their rental business revenues both exceeded the level of 2019 in the second quarter of this year.

　　The situation across the Atlantic is quite similar. Macerich, an American shopping mall operator, said that in the second quarter of this year, the number of leases signed by the company increased by 27% year-on-year, which was 47% higher than that in 2019. The company said that the current demand of retailers is at the highest level since 2015. DavidSimon, CEO of Simon Real Estate in the United States, said that in Las Vegas, Florida, California … … The demand of retailers is gradually picking up. "Even if something happens in the world, we haven’t seen anyone withdraw from the (lease) transaction." He said.

　　According to market research firm Coresight Research, so far this year, American retailers have opened a net of 2,478 offline stores. You know, last year, American retailers only opened 68 stores. In 2019, 9,832 American retailers closed their stores and only 4,689 opened.

　　Sun Xiao is currently working as a real estate investment manager in an investment management company in France, and he also feels deeply about the above phenomenon. "In Paris, offline stores such as luxury goods are long queues of consumers, which is quite similar to the situation before the epidemic."

　　In an interview with China Business News, he said, "With the slowdown of epidemic prevention policy and the arrival of the tourist season, everyone’s pent-up offline demand has been released. However, it remains to be seen whether this phenomenon will continue. In the case of inflation and interest rate hikes, the real income of European and American residents in the future may be affected, and the increase in service consumption may also squeeze the demand for commodity consumption. "

On July 8, a man wearing a mask walked in the Louvre Square in Paris, France. Xinhua News Agency

　　Retailers increase their efforts to open offline stores.

　　In recent months, with the high inflation and the tightening of monetary policy by European and American central banks, consumer retail in Europe and America has shown a weak trend. According to the latest data released by the German Federal Statistical Office, in June, Germany’s retail sales fell by 8.8% year-on-year, the largest annual decline since records began in 1994. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, in June, US retail sales increased by 1% month-on-month. Among them, the retail sales of clothing and accessories decreased by 0.4% from the previous month.

　　Simon Real Estate believes that the reason why European and American retailers open stores offline is slightly different from the macro environment is because consumers’ consumption behavior has diverged. In the context of high inflation, the enthusiasm of young consumers with relatively poor incomes may decline, which is reflected in the slowdown in sales of retailers such as Fast Fashion. However, the sales of retailers such as men’s suits continue to grow. "Consumers with relatively high incomes are still spending money." Simon said.

　　This phenomenon is also supported by the data of the recent luxury goods earnings season. In the first half of this year, Hermes’ revenue increased by 23%, LVMH’s revenue increased by 21% and kering’s revenue increased by 16%. Generally speaking, luxury goods are mostly sold offline. The above luxury brands said that their sales in Europe and the United States have increased substantially. With the arrival of the tourist season, the euro has weakened, and luxury stores in Paris and Milan are now crowded with American tourists who come to "sweep the goods".

　　Zhang Yi, CEO of Ai Media Consulting, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that during the epidemic, many European and American governments provided more "stimulus checks" to the people through financial and monetary policies. At present, European and American consumers, especially middle-and high-income consumers, still accumulate more savings, which is the main reason to support the above-mentioned middle-and high-end consumption.

　　According to Moody’s rating agency, as of May, the total excess savings of American residents was about 2.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 10% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP)..The agency found that compared with the middle and high income groups, the residents with the lowest income of 20% were one of the few groups that did not use their savings in the first quarter.

　　Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said in the middle and late July that the savings accumulated by households in the region during the epidemic and the strong labor market are supporting consumption in the region.

　　Douglas Healey, senior executive vice president of Macerich leasing business, also said that another reason for promoting the expansion of offline stores is that Europe and the United States have gradually loosened epidemic prevention policies, the restoration of tourism has arrived, and the consumption scene is gradually returning from online to offline. For example, sports brands such as Fabletics and AloYoga, shoemakers and furniture chain stores are all seeking to expand their business by opening physical stores.

People cool off at the seaside in Cannes, France. Xinhua News Agency

　　Sun Xiao also believes that although consumption in France is becoming increasingly online, the commercial value of offline stores cannot be ignored. Stores can provide advertising and offline experience, and retailers’ online image can also be improved by visiting physical stores. In the process of offline shopping, physical stores can reduce delivery costs and enhance consumers’ brand awareness of stores, which makes up for the lack of only online consumption scenarios.

　　A study by Nielsen, a market research organization, also found that online channels are an important means to compare prices, research new products and find physical stores. But in addition, other factors are often ignored, which limits the possibility of maximizing the use of these physical channels by merchants to realize the complementarity of online and offline channels.

　　Is it possible for consumers to keep returning to the offline?

　　Macerich said that the company recently conducted a survey of about 30 largest tenants in the country and found that about 90% of the tenants have not changed their plans to open new stores this year. URW also said that its rent collection rate in the third quarter reached 88%, and the most difficult period may have passed.

　　According to a report released by Forrester2, a market research organization, if 2020 is the outbreak year of online retail in the United States, then 2021 is the outbreak year of offline retail in the United States, and the growth rate of online retail sales will gradually fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the future. It is estimated that by 2027, the total retail sales in the United States will reach 5.5 trillion US dollars, and the total offline retail sales will reach 3.9 trillion US dollars.

　　However, in Zhang Yi’s view, there are many challenges that restrict consumers in Europe and America from returning to the tropic of cancer in the future. One of the major factors is that with the gradual slowdown of epidemic prevention policies, service consumption is gradually increasing, which may squeeze consumers’ demand for commodity consumption.

　　In the hotel industry, Airbnb recently said that the continued high booking price helped the company achieve strong revenue in the second quarter. From April to June, the company’s revenue reached $2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Among them, the number of overnight and experience bookings on the platform reached 103.7 million. Airbnb expects that the revenue in the third quarter will reach the highest level in history. Earlier this week, the hotel giant Marriott Group reported a 70% year-on-year increase in revenue in the second quarter. Last week, the performance of Hilton Hotels Group also exceeded expectations.

　　In the aviation industry, in the second quarter of this year, the parent company of British Airways — — International Aviation Group (IAG) announced its first profit since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Air France-KLM, one of the three major European airlines, also announced that its operating profit in the second quarter reached 386 million euros, an increase of 1.139 billion euros over last year. The performance data released by the three major airlines in the United States in the second quarter and the first half of the year show that the revenue and profit rate of the above companies in a single quarter are all record.

Inflation in the euro zone is difficult to suppress in the short term. Source: wind

　　But behind this prosperity, there are also hidden concerns. Sun Xiao told the First Financial Reporter that inflation in Europe and America is high at present, and it is still possible for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to adopt more radical monetary tightening policies in the future, which will hit demand. Specifically in the field of consumption, this will be reflected in the impact of residents’ income and the decline in consumption power, which will likely drag down the sales of offline retail.

　　O’Hearn, CEO of Macerich (; Hern) also believes that inflation, rising interest rates and the situation in Ukraine are bringing uncertainty to the economic environment.

　　According to data from retail analysis company Placer.ai, in June, American people’s visits to the outlet center decreased by 6.7%. According to the agency’s analysis, the reason is that the price of gasoline in the United States continues to rise, and residents drive too long to the outlet. Everyone is reluctant to go to the shopping center because they want to save fuel.

　　Recently, Fed officials have intensively released "hawkish" remarks. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that the Fed’s fight against inflation is "far from complete", which indicates that interest rates will continue to rise. He also said that the major interest rate hikes this year do not mean that the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Loretta Mester, president of Cleveland Fed, and Charles Evans, president of Chicago Fed, said on the same day that the United States may still adopt a relatively tight monetary policy until inflation cools down.