Foreign-funded financial institutions look at the two sessions: policy overweight boosts consumption, expands domestic demand, develops emerging industries and helps economic restructuring.

The gross domestic product will increase by about 5%, the consumer price will increase by about 2%, and deficit ratio plans to arrange it by about 4% … This year’s government work report has set the expected targets for major economic and social development in 2025.

This policy tone has also attracted the attention of foreign-funded institutions. According to many foreign financial institutions interviewed by shanghai securities news, a series of key words such as "more active and promising macro policies", "expanding domestic demand in all directions" and "cultivating and expanding emerging industries and future industries" released more positive signals, demonstrating China’s determination to continuously promote high-quality economic development.

Macro policies are more active and promising.

In the government work report, "implementing more active and promising macro policies" has aroused widespread concern.

In terms of fiscal policy, the government’s work report states that this year, deficit ratio plans to arrange around 4%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous year, with a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 trillion yuan higher than the previous year.

Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Group in China, said that the intensity of fiscal expenditure has increased significantly this year, which will form the strongest fiscal multiplier effect since 2021. He said that the growth rate of expenditure in 2025 will accelerate from less than 3% in 2024 to 7% in 2025, which is expected to boost the nominal gdp growth by about 2 percentage points.

On the monetary policy level, the government work report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, timely reduce the RRR and interest rates, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level.

Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank for Greater China and North Asia, said that on the whole, the growth of money supply should match the expected targets of economic growth and inflation, reflecting the decision-making departments’ intention to promote moderate price recovery, which is also one of the considerations of setting the inflation target at a more reasonable level of 2% in the government work report.

According to Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China and head of economic research in Greater China, the continuity of policy is an important feature of economic policy in 2025. He believes that this round of policy adjustment since September 2024 is a layout of "the first half", and 2025 is the "second half" of this layout. This continuity is not only reflected in the specific content of the policy, but also in the smooth communication between the government and the market.

"The government work report shows that the government attaches great importance to the timeliness of policies. The report puts forward that’ the implementation of policies should be early, rather than late’." Ding Shuang said.

"Expanding domestic demand in all directions" is the primary task.

The government work report lists "expanding domestic demand in all directions" as the top ten tasks, and boosting consumption is placed in a more prominent position.

"Cyclical and structural policies will work together to boost domestic consumption." Liu Jing, chief economist of HSBC Global Research Greater China, said that the long-term stable consumption boost comes from the improvement of residents’ income level and income expectation. In addition to some direct income-increasing policies, the new urbanization also emphasizes the provision of basic public services according to the permanent residence, which is expected to improve the consumption power of the agricultural transfer population.

Zhu Haibin believes that promoting consumption and promoting effective investment will promote the enhancement of economic endogenous growth momentum. According to his calculation, the subsidy scale of the old-for-new policy has doubled from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the related livelihood consumption growth by over 400 billion yuan.

"In addition, the policy of service-oriented consumption is stronger than last year, and the policy details are more specific. For example, promote the further opening up of telecommunications, medical care, finance and other fields, further tap the potential of domestic service consumption, and provide consumers with a better service experience. " Zhu Haibin said.

The development of emerging industries helps the transformation of economic structure.

The government work report proposes to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries. In the view of many foreign financial institutions, this formulation conveys an important signal to support scientific and technological innovation.

Zhu Haibin believes that in addition to the previous "new three" fields (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products), this year’s fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots have ushered in more catalytic factors in the capital market, and the follow-up is expected to become a new bright spot for investment to encourage innovation.

"Under the goal of economic restructuring, on the one hand, we hope to see the real estate market stabilize, on the other hand, we hope to promote economic growth through the development of new quality productivity and the pull-up of new economic sectors." Zhu Haibin said that in the past few years, the representative "new three kinds" of China’s industries have developed very rapidly, but in terms of the proportion of their contribution to the overall economic growth, the growth of new economic sectors needs to be expanded. The emergence of hot events such as deepseek shows the market that China has the ability to innovate in more industries, which is the most positive signal.

He believes that in the short term, there is still much room for improvement in the proportion of industrial chains such as ai in the total economic output. "If this growth momentum can be maintained, developing from’ new three kinds’ to’ new N kinds’ will help the economic restructuring to reach a steady state as soon as possible."

Liu Jing said that China has always attached great importance to scientific and technological innovation to improve productivity. The breakthrough of deepseek has made the world sit up and take notice of China’s innovation ability and potential, and also made the government and the market more actively plan the layout and development of emerging industries and future industries.

Source: shanghai securities news

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Consolidate the ideological foundation of building a dream with one heart (cohesion)

  In the past five years, we have painted a beautiful blueprint.

  ● In the past five years, we have cultivated a heavy hand.

  ● In these five years, we have led a core value.

  In the past five years, we have laid a solid foundation for party building.

  History, like a giant pen, needs soul pulse traction; The great journey of the times is inseparable from the beacon of thought. To strengthen the party’s leadership in an all-round way, we must first strengthen ideological cohesion, so as to consolidate the ideological foundation of building a Chinese dream together.

  In these five years, we have formed a set of theoretical system. With a high degree of theoretical consciousness and self-confidence, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core creatively pondered and answered the new issues facing Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s development, put forward a series of innovative new ideas, new theories and new requirements, and made a new theoretical summary, forming the spirit of the important speeches of the Supreme Leader General Secretary, new ideas, new ideas and new strategies for governing the country and creating a new realm for adhering to and developing Socialism with Chinese characteristics.

  This is a scientific and complete ideological and theoretical system, the latest achievement of Marxism in China, and the new contribution of our Party to the development of Marxism in the 21st century. Under the scientific guidance of the spirit of the series of important speeches by the Supreme Leader General Secretary and the new ideas, new ideas and new strategies of governing the country, the whole party’s thinking is more unified, its pace is more consistent, and its cohesion is greatly enhanced.

  In these five years, we have painted a beautiful blueprint.

  "Everyone has ideals and pursuits and has their own dreams. Now, everyone is discussing the Chinese dream. I think that realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the greatest dream of the Chinese nation in modern times. " On November 29th, 2012, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader visited the exhibition "The Road to Rejuvenation", which gave our ideals and pursuits a resounding name — — Chinese dream.

  National dream, national dream and personal dream, the Chinese dream, with vivid words and magnificent feelings, is entrusted with the common expectations of several generations of Chinese, which embodies the overall interests of the Chinese nation and the people of China and condenses the greatest common denominator of 1.3 billion Chinese.

  Under the traction of the Chinese dream, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has made concerted efforts to open up a new situation step by step;

  Under the traction of the Chinese dream, China’s economy is the second largest economy in the world, successfully resisting various risk challenges, and "the scenery is unique here";

  Under the traction of the Chinese dream, new progress has been made in learning to teach, earning income from labor, getting medical care for illness, providing for the elderly and living and living, and the people’s sense of gain has been significantly enhanced.

  In the past five years, we have cultivated a heavy foundation.

  "To persist in Do not forget your initiative mind and move on, we must adhere to Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s road confidence, theoretical confidence, institutional confidence and cultural confidence, unswervingly adhere to the party’s basic line, and constantly push forward the great cause of Socialism with Chinese characteristics." At the celebration of the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC), General Secretary of the Supreme Leader solemnly proposed to adhere to the "four self-confidences".

  Relying on the "four self-confidences", we continue to create miracles in China, contribute wisdom in China, and provide China’s solutions, so that the Chinese nation with a history of more than 5,000 years of civilization development can glow with new vitality.

  "I am confident that if I live for 200 years, I will be hit by water for three thousand miles." Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s continuous great achievements fully prove that Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s road is correct, Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s theoretical system is scientific, Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system is advanced, and Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s culture is full of vitality.

  In these five years, we have led a core value.

  "Prosperity, democracy, civilization, harmony, freedom, equality, justice, rule of law, patriotism, dedication, honesty and friendliness." 24 words, every word is well-written.

  In the past five years, the General Secretary of the Supreme Leader has put forward a series of innovative new ideas, new viewpoints and new requirements around cultivating and carrying forward the socialist core values, which is an important part of the new ideas, new ideas and new strategies of the Party Central Committee governing the country with the Comrade of the Supreme Leader as the core.

  In the past five years, the cultivation of socialist core values has entered the mind. "100 forums on core values" was held, and public service advertisements "Illustrating our values" were created and broadcast; Nursery rhymes, paper-cutting, Allegro, handwritten newspapers, creative propaganda methods and vivid display carriers have made the core values of "24 words" sound in the whole society.

  In the past five years, the pace of practicing socialist core values has been sonorous. People have seen that "the most beautiful people" have emerged from all walks of life and shined the land of China, vividly interpreting the rich connotation of socialist core values; People heard that the "model of the times" issued a strong voice of the times, boosted the spirit of the times, and bravely acted as the vanguard of practice and promotion. The whole society is constantly setting off the trend of the times of being good and upward.

  In these five years, we have laid a solid foundation for party building.

  Ideological party building is the basic principle and requirement of Marxist party building, and it is also a valuable experience and an important magic weapon for the continuous development and growth of our party. It is also the distinctive feature and primary task of managing the party since the 18th National Congress.

  The CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core attaches great importance to the Party’s ideological construction. From a political and overall perspective, it has successively deployed and carried out the Party’s mass line education and practice activities, "three strictness and three realities" special education and "two studies and one doing" study and education, promoting the inner-party education to expand from "key minority" to all party member, and from centralized education to regular education, and playing a set of "combination boxing" to continuously strengthen the inner-party ideological and political education. People have seen that the "master switch" of party member and cadres’ thoughts has been tightened constantly, and party organizations at all levels and the vast number of party member have strengthened their beliefs, strengthened the "four consciousnesses", and built a highly consistent ideological foundation with the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, and gathered into a powerful force to promote reform, development and stability.

  It is with this theoretical system, this beautiful blueprint, this heavy foundation, this core value and this foundation of party building that our party is more cohesive, uniting and leading the people in the extraordinary five years and bringing the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation into reality.

  Caption:

  Figure ①: The manned submersible "Jilong" enters the water.

  Liu Shiping

  Figure ②: At the 70th anniversary of the victory of the world anti-fascist war, the people’s army was magnificent.

  People’s vision

  Figure ③: Primary school teachers and students create paper-cut works of "Fifty-six nationalities share a common Chinese dream".

  Hao Qunying

  Figure ④: Red lanterns printed with socialist core values appear in Hefei, Anhui.

  Ge Chuanhong

  Figure ⑤: Harmony train crosses Juyongguan Flower Sea.

  People’s vision

The most worthwhile FAW Pentium compact suv Pentium is on fire again.

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