The ＂Putin era＂ is far from over

　　　　　On December 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (right) talked at the opening ceremony of the "Year of the Family" held in the Kremlin of Moscow, the capital. Putin said on the 10th of this month that he supported Medvedev in running for the next president. Xinhua News Agency/Reuters

　　　　In 2007, the pace of Russia’s revitalization was great, and its momentum was manifested in three ways: under the condition of "controllable democracy", the political stability was guaranteed and a new political party system was initially formed; The strong energy has led to accelerated economic growth and a substantial improvement in people’s living standards; Withstand the pressure of the United States on the premise of enhancing comprehensive national strength, thus maintaining the image of a big country and enhancing international prestige.

　　　　The deterioration of Russia-US relations shown by the boycott of the US anti-missile system deployed in Eastern Europe and Putin’s great influence shown by the election results of the State Duma are the two most prosperous events in Russia in 2007.

　　　　Let me talk about Russia-US relations first. The main responsibility for the deterioration of Russia-US relations lies with the United States. The consistent policy of the United States towards Russia is to weaken its comprehensive national strength and squeeze its strategic space. NATO’s eastward expansion, the "color revolution" and the deployment of anti-missile systems constitute a trilogy to suppress Russia. In this regard, as Russia’s national strength has changed from weakness to recovery and then to strengthening, it has shown different protest postures from "patience with a cat’s waist" to "straight waist" and then to "standing back".

　　　　The reason why Russia can have a tough attitude towards the United States mainly comes from the "three gases." One is justified. As some media have commented, it is the West that is suppressing Russia, not Russia that is provoking the West. Putin’s tough attitude is only to seek an equal position with Western countries. The second is deep pockets. Although Russia’s economic strength is only one-third of that of the United States, its revival momentum is very fast, and its GDP is growing steadily at a high speed of around 7%. The third name is Wei Chongqi. Putin’s approach is popular in Russia, and its social support rate is above 70%, which even jumped to more than 80% in the recent period. It is precisely because of the above reasons that Russia’s diplomacy is becoming stronger and stronger.

　　　　Let me talk about Putin’s influence. The United Russia Party, led by President Putin, won a great victory in the State Duma election. This has created political conditions for determining the presidential successor and provided organizational guarantee for Putin to continue to play an important role in the country’s political life in the future.

　　　　How to evaluate Putin’s outstanding contributions? To borrow an article from the Financial Times on June 13th, I said: "Putin is very popular with the people. Russians feel that the country is stable again and national pride has recovered. " From a higher level evaluation, it can be said that Yeltsin has achieved an unsuccessful exploration of breaking the Soviet model and trying to change to the European and American model; Putin, on the other hand, reversed Yeltsin’s failed western model and realized a preliminary but far-reaching change to explore a model with Russian characteristics.

　　　　Putin will not be re-elected, but he can still play an important role. The Russian authorities are deliberately "tailor-made" for him, and there may be no more appropriate choice than to be the "plenipotentiary prime minister". Putin has said that he will not change the power structure between the president and the prime minister and will not pursue the special status of the prime minister. However, the question is: how will a person who is praised as a "national leader" by the United Russia Party show its core role if he is the prime minister of the government without correspondingly enhancing his power?

　　　　Nowadays, the international media is rumored to say "post-Putin era", but in fact, the "Putin era" has not passed. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced four stages of "breaking, chaos, governance and prosperity". In 1989, Yeltsin was in power, which was an era from "breaking" to "chaos". Putin’s eight years as president is an era from "chaos" to "governance" and begins to move towards "prosperity". This era is far from over. (Professor Yu Sui, China Center for Contemporary World Studies)

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Editor: Li Xiuwei